Outrightly, let me first demystify the myth that Luos don't come out to vote. Luo Nyanza has had a historically high turnout that dwarfs the national average, since multi party elections. The Anti-Luo mafia have always portrayed us as lazy voters for their own self interests.
Nexsms Africa has done a Big Data Analysis of the Luo voter potential for 2027 and even the general outlook for all other regions for 2027 in terms of voter potential and possible turnouts. In 2022, 46,482 adults from Homa Bay declined to register as voters, this number is roughly 300,000 across the Nyanza region. These are men and women who were 18 years and above but did not register as voters.
We digested the KNBS 2019 Census report to get these figures and to further calculate our voter potential. Homa Bay alone has 139, 679 young people who will be turning 18 by 1st January 2027, eligible to enroll as voters in the upcoming general elections. If you add this figure to our current 551,071 voters in the roll and the 46,482 who failed to register in the last window, you realise that Homa Bay has a voter potential of 737,232 votes come 2027.
The Homa Bay turnout was 90.3% in 2013, 82.9% in 2017 and 77.9% in 2022. All these times, we have turned out more than the national average. With Raila Odinga out of the picture, many argue that very few Luos will turn out to vote, but our surveys show otherwise. We are going to have tighter races locally which means higher turnout.
Unlike before where having the ODM ticket was as good as winning, this time round, many candidates are going to fight to the end and this will stimulate the voter turnout. Luoland is going to have the highest turnout than anywhere else.
The Mt. Kenya region, however, will have a lower turnout. They tend to turn out more when they have their own in the ballot for the top seat. With none of them going for the big seat, they will mind their businesses on the polling day. In 2022, for instance, Kiambu County had their turnout lower than the national average. Only 64% of them came out to vote, 14% below Homa Bay.
Our Super Computer has also broken down these data per Constituency, giving us direction on how to best mobilize our votes arsenal ready for 2027. We must change our politics to be data driven and use data to inform our strategies as a people. How I wish Lavender Ojalla and her team would pay me 13 million shillings only and exploit this data to fortify the great vote and ID mobilization drive she is spearheading.
Nyanza can only be a 2027 darling when we reach out voter saturation before then, and cast it as a block when the time comes. Keep up the good work and count on my unflinching support towards such a cause.
